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Economists think they have most of the data they need to forecast the price of oil: The dollar is rising; consumption in the US is falling; production out of OPEC is steady; the drop in crude has driven many speculators out of the game; unrest is receding in Nigeria and Venezuela; huge deposits have been found off Brazil; the hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico has not disrupted production.

War is harder to predict, but there it is in Georgia. Russia seems intent on destroying the military of its small neighbor state. The U.S. is pushing to keep Russia from escalating the conflict, which is driving extreme tension between Russia and NATO. Russia is an important supplier of crude, and it could decide to use that as leverage to keep the West out of the dust up.

There is some speculation that the Russian government would like to cripple other countries that share it borders to build a geographic "buffer" to its south. NATO may be forced to step in because some of these countries are close to its members' territories.

War is hard to predict and the oil market does not like the unpredictable. Oil prices are about to rise and could get much higher.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

American President George Bush announced his new budget spending plan today, and the package came out to a total of $3.1 trillion.

Today's federal budget proposal marks the first time in America's history that a budget plan has been in excess of $3 trillion. Bush claims that his budget is "good" and "solid" and that the passing of this budget will help keep the troubled American economy growing.

All in all, this budget looks to lift government spending by 6% during the fiscal year 2009, and it will probably come to no one's surprise that defense gets a nice little boost from today's budget. Bush is looking to allocate 8.2% of his spending on security, and the budget is looking to stake a $70 billion "placeholder" for war costs during 2009. The Pentagon should be pleased with its figures, as Bush is looking to allocate $515.4 billion its way... the highest allocation since WWII (and represents a 7.5% jump).

I was motivated to write this by a recent blog post by Jonathan Berr entitled, Iowa to Wall Street: Drop dead. In that post Jonathan made one assertion to which I take exception. Mr. Berr claims that the American voter is scared and that our fear shall rule the ballot box this coming November. With all due respect (and much is due) to Jonathan Berr, I must make this one assertion, it's not fear that we shall carry to the ballot box in November, it's anger. We as a public are very angry and we have every right to be mad as hell.

We're mad because we know that as major banks were writing off losses they brought upon themselves, they sold those debt portfolios to collection agencies and pools of lawyers who relentlessly chased those dollars until the cows came home. Yeah, it's a loss on the books but those debts are still real and collectible. Do they honestly think we don't know that?

We're angry because our government is silently allowing the sale of large stakes in major domestic financial institutions to foreign entities.

We're upset that our government is underwriting the foolishness of producing ethanol from foodstuffs for use in internal combustion engines when good sense tells us that ethanol should be made from waste and used at it's source for electrical generation.

We're mad as hell that we're potentially facing a government made up mainly of turncoat Democrats who sanctioned a war with their votes and now haughtily claim they were misled. They're liars or they're stupid... which is it?

Let me introduce my Yankee Doodle Dandy portfolio, a compilation of red, white and blue stocks for investors to consider as they celebrate our nation's independence.

Regardless of your views on the Iraq war, there's no denying that defense stocks including Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT), Northrop Grumman Co. (NYSE: NOC), Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN) and General Dynamics Corp. (NYSE: GD) are reasonably valued. This is especially noteworthy considering that defense spending will need to be maintained at pretty high levels for years to come in order to replace equipment that's been worn out from combat. President Bush is proposing to spend a record $439 billion in fiscal 2007 on defense and another $42.7 billion on homeland security.

Lockheed, the maker of the F-16, seems especially cheap, trading at a forward multiple of 14.6. Its shares have only gained 4.6% this year even though the company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and raised earnings guidance. Missile and defense electronics company Raytheon, up less than 3%, is in the same situation.

Investors often overlook the huge businesses that Lockheed and Raytheon have in areas outside of defense, including computer systems and air-traffic control. The managements of both companies also have vastly improved over the past few years. Northrop and General Dynamics have always been pretty well run.

Boeing Co. (NYSE:BA), notably the second-largest defense contractor, also looks worth snapping up. Its stock is up less than 3% this year, which is surprising considering how well it's rebounded against European rival Airbus. The company trades at a forward multiple of 17.7.

As you go about your picnics, parties, socials and reunions, please remember to take some time to remember the purpose of Memorial Day. Please take just a few moments to turn your focus away from all the whirling, swirling activities of life, take a deep breath and utter a word of thanks. Many are the ranks of brave souls who have given their lives for us. Think of them, remember them, give them thanks and be rightly humbled.

Thanks to all the many proud armed forces personnel who have set aside their own worthy lives to serve the likes of me. Thanks to the spouses, sons and daughters of our guardians, you have sacrificed everything to the prospects of uncertainty so that we may be safe. Thanks to the military chains of command which faithfully execute their tasks in an effort to successfully complete their mission and bring our warriors home safely. Thanks to our Commander in Chief, if for no other reason than because his is a difficult job. Thanks to each of you who through your tax funding help maintain the single most effective fighting force in the world.

Please just take one solitary moment to forget all the political arguments and half truths. Forget who's right or who's wrong. Forget who started it or when it should end. Please, just remember at the end of your day or somewhere in it that this one single thing is true: Someone out there is willing to die for you.

Say thanks.

Tonight is the finale of ABC's The Bachelor: Officer and a Gentleman, starring outrageously handsome (and blue-eyed, tan, white-toothed, chiseled-chested) Navy diver and doctor Andy Baldwin. As I wait with bated breath for him to choose Tessa (he must, he must!), I have to wonder: Just how big an effect does the media's portrayal of military men have on the war? As we begin to accept the glamorization of Officer Andy (let's remember it's been a long time since everyone was hot for Richard Gere in the movie An Officer and a Gentleman), if Walt Disney Co.'s (NYSE: DIS) ABC can bank on a military guy -- if anyone can make money from a man in uniform -- will this change America's currently blasé attitude toward the war?

If Mr. Officer/Gentleman and his new bride-to-be are a symbol that popular culture is starting to fall back in love with the military, how much more so must one of the two ultimate romantic icons: Prince Harry. Although the British military recently reversed its decision to send him to Iraq (there were "unacceptable risks" said the Ministry of Defence), the media is nonetheless flooded with photos of Harry in dress uniform, Harry in fatigues, Harry painted up with full camouflage. Suddenly, the military is big business again -- and I'm not even talking Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) or Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT). No, the military is big cultural business. We can't stop talking about it. We can't stop romanticizing the hot men in uniform, and I predict television, movies and other popular media will be full of chiseled-chested officers in the coming few years.

The military is never half as romantic in real life as it has been in some of the most iconic movies and television shows over the years, but lately it has been portrayed as decidedly unromantic (no one, for instance, could call George Clooney's character in Gulf War movie Three Kings "romantic"). The tide is most obviously turning. Will America turn too?

(And for the record, pick Tessa!)

Niall Ferguson, the historian par excellence, graced Barron's cover this weekend. The article's author and editor decided to focus more on Ferguson's celebrity and prognostications of fear rather than the substance behind what has given this historian such high regard.

Ferguson is one of the few historians who has focused on the economics behind why events happen -- unlike most historians who brush aside such important details.

His most recent, and possibly most powerful, release is The War of the World which attempts to find the reasons why political, social and economic forces unfold the way they do. It is not about World War II, as incorrectly stated by Barron's.

In this book, Ferguson asks how the world went from such a great period of globalization in the late 1880s to early 1900s into a complete and bloody mess during the next forty years. The book covers every angle a reasonably intelligent person could think of, plus a lot more.

What makes Ferguson's work so powerful is that he looks to economic data for answers rather than recycling information from previously published books on the period. The economic data often destroys the long-held beliefs we have, since most history is written around a few leading participants -- mostly politicians or military leaders -- of that time.

You will have to read The War of the World to find out Ferguson's conclusions. Empire is another great book he authored on Great Britain's evolution into a global power -- essentially stating that the meek do not inherit the earth. The House of Rothschild is also required reading. This is a great read because the family's success was so intertwined with the growth of Europe. Not only do you learn about the Rothschild dynasty but the history of Europe as well during the 1800s.

I've been in love with natural foods grocers since I was a little girl, when Fred Meyer opened a little mini-store dedicated to raw peanut butter, tofu, wheat germ and a dozen different kinds of bulk grains. The store had candy bars made out of honey and I loved it. Since then, my understanding for and appreciation of the natural grocer has grown up with the industry; from the cute little small-town co-op where I shopped in college, to the Fresh Fields (acquired, and already assimilated by, Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ:WFMI)) I fell in love with in Philadelphia during business school, to the discovery of the Portland, Oregon New Seasons chain when I moved "back home" in 2001. I noshed at every quick-service franchise that jumped on the healthy foods wagon, from spirulina-spiked smoothies to bagels loaded with sprouts and hummus.

Natural and organic grocers always seemed like the nice (if a bit militant) guys, interested in supporting the local farmer, providing non-toxic food and diapers for our babies, striving to make sure our bodies were healthy and our baths were perfumed with chamomile and lavendar. And then 2005 happened.

Suddenly Wal-Mart Stores, Inc (NYSE:WMT) was in the organic grocery game. Safeway Inc. (NYSE:SWY) started its own line of "O" organic foods. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) created a line of herbal-infused babycare products and Kellogg Company (NYSE:K) launched organic Rice Krispies and Corn Flakes. Big business had figured it out and suddenly it wasn't smelling much like chamomile and patchouli. No. It smelled more like war.

With the news yesterday that Whole Foods was set to acquire Wild Oats Markets (NYSE:OATS), the war seems ever more bitter.

This morning's Wall Street Journal [subscription required] is trumpeting the Dow's new record. And my Blogging Stocks colleagues, including Sarah Gilbert, have offered instructive comments. What should investors do about the Dow's new high? My short answer is to profit from the October surprise!!!

As you may be aware, there is a little election coming up in a month. The Wall Street Journal seems to have noticed this. It gave the Dow's new high the most prominent placement -- a chance to change the subject from the Foley coverage, which also landed on its front page. With the public's realization that the House leadership was coddling this pedophile who co-chaired the House Caucus on Missing and Exploited Children, it should not come as a shock that Republican poll figures are tumbling.

Thus, the party in power needs to change the subject fast -- by invading Iran. And you can profit from this October surprise. Why do I think an Iran invasion is the October surprise and how can you profit from it?