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Earnings preview: Procter & Gamble should be fine

The company that brings you Ivory Soap, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), is set to divulge its Q4 numbers on Tuesday. So, what should shareholders expect from this consumer-products behemoth?

Well, I don't think it's going to be much of a surprise. Data at Earnings.com suggest that analysts believe P&G will do $0.78 per share in terms of the bottom line. Management actually expects around that number, as well. A recent piece I wrote about P&G reiterating its guidance shows that between $0.76 and $.78 per share is the range being looked at. So, I think we'll see the top end of the range reported tomorrow. P&G has a solid recent history of slightly beating expectations. Perhaps there will be a beat, but it most likely won't be by more than a penny.

This will represent pretty decent performance in a market wracked by horrible inflationary pressures. Going back to Earnings.com, the previous year's bottom-line number was $0.67 per share, so P&G will be looking at good double-digit growth. The top line, by the way, should expand at least 8%. Volume data will also be important to look at so investors can get a handle on how successfully the company is cultivating price increases. P&G has a significant advantage over competitors since its line of products is so well-known and trusted. I mean, when it comes to things like Ivory Soap, many consumers will refuse to alter their brand loyalties even if they have to pay more at the pump. Yes, sales of generic products obviously do have a challenging impact, but as I found with Kraft's (NYSE: KFT) recent earnings report, brand equity is a selective advantage in the Darwinian landscape of supermarket shelves. It's also useful for protecting margins.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Procter & Gamble should be fine

'Singular' values: A, C, F, K, M, N, Q, S, T

"One group of stocks that has always intrigued us are those whose symbols have one letter," notes George Putnam. The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "Odd as this idea may at first seem, it actually makes some sense for a deep value investor. These are often old-line companies with well-known brand names. In some cases the single letter symbols were awarded many decades ago."

After reviewing the 19 stocks with single letter symbols (7 are currently unused), Putnam offers six that he says, have been "beaten down pretty badly and now look particularly appealing."'

"Agilent Technologies (NYSE: A), which makes electronic and bio-analytic measuring devices, was spun out of Hewlett-Packard in 1999. Revenues surged in 2000 as did the stock price, reaching a lofty 162.

"But the company subsequently suffered along with its customers in the communications and technology sectors. However, the financials are sound, including strong cash flow that is supporting a $2 billion share buyback, and management has been restructuring and realigning operations for long-term growth.

Continue reading 'Singular' values: A, C, F, K, M, N, Q, S, T

Kellogg beats in Q2, navigates inflationary environment

Kellogg (NYSE: K), arch competitor of General Mills (NYSE: GIS), issued its Q2 missive to investors on Thursday, and from my viewpoint, things look pretty good at the famous breakfast icon(see more earnings news). Kellogg finds itself in a similar situation to Kraft (NYSE: KFT). The company has had to raise prices to keep up with input costs, and it's doing reasonably well in passing those increases along to the consumers who love its brands.

Net sales rose 11% to $3.3 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $0.82, which was one penny higher than analyst expectations, as cited in this Before the Bell piece. Considering that Kellogg was fighting inflation and significantly increasing its marketing spend to keep its product line humming, the 9% expansion in the bottom line can be looked upon in a positive light. Of course, the weak dollar did help the top line. Stripping out currency effects and acquisitions, the revenue growth was closer to 6%. Still, Kellogg is holding up as best it can, and although free cash flow for the six-month period was down 10%, there still were enough funds to service the dividend obligation.

Kellogg has reduced costs, raised its guidance, and initiated a new share-repurchase scheme worth $500 million that will begin sometime toward the latter part of the year. The cereal king thinks it will now do somewhere between $2.95 and $3.00 per share in terms of earnings. Those thinking of adding Kellogg to a long-term portfolio might benefit from waiting for a higher yield, maybe in the 3% area, considering how volatile the markets are.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Before the bell: Undecided ahead of GDP: XOM, FSLR, MOT, MO, GM, GOOG ...

U.S. stock futures were mixed Thursday morning ahead of the government preliminary report of U.S. second-quarter gross domestic product to be released at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Compare to the first quarter, where GDP grew at an annual rate of 1%, analysts are expecting an annual growth rate in the second quarter of 2.3% according to Briefing.com. Another wave of earnings will also wash Wall Street over this morning, while it's still digesting Wednesday's ones. The market will likely take a clearer direction once GDP is out.

[Update: GDP grew at a 1.9% pace in the second quarter came in well short of the 2.3% forecast. Futures are declining on economy and the XOM miss. Wall Street will likely open significantly lower.]

Reporting/reported this morning:
  • Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) is expected to report second-quarter earnings before the open. If ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) and BP (NYSE: BP) results are any indication, XOM will likely post massive profits thanks to oil's skyrocketing prices and even break the record it has set for largest profit by a U.S. company. Analyst on average expect Exxon Mobil to earn $2.52 a share on revenue of $144 billion, according to a survey by Thomson Financial.
  • MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA) is expected to report earnings of $2.02 per share.
  • Kellog (NYSE: K) is expected to post earnings of 81 cents per shares.

Continue reading Before the bell: Undecided ahead of GDP: XOM, FSLR, MOT, MO, GM, GOOG ...

Kraft and its brand equity deliver an earnings-beating quarter

Kraft (NYSE: KFT) had one heck of a second quarter. It was a lot better than I thought it would be. As Melly Alazraki reported in her Before the bell post on Monday, Kraft managed to demolish analyst expectations by delivering 58 cents per share to the bottom line, a number that no only represented a 16% growth but that was 8 cents better than what Wall Street analysts were looking for. Overall, net revenues soared over 21%, while organic-revenue growth came in at roughly 7%. Not bad at all.

Even with the hellish inflation of input costs dogging it, Kraft managed to engage a price-increasing strategy that not only defended the bottom line but helped it thrive. How could it do this? Brand power, my friends. Looks like investors underestimated that power, and the fact that people are willing to pay more for the things they love.

Of course, it might be understandable that investors would not be willing to credit Kraft and its portfolio with such earnings-beating potential considering that there's so much competition out there from generic brands and that fuel costs are eating into supermarket budgets. Yet, the numbers support Kraft's current strategies. Volume wasn't too negatively affected in my opinion, and the margins turned out to be just fine -- something investors love to see when inflation is out front every single day in the headlines.

Continue reading Kraft and its brand equity deliver an earnings-beating quarter

Big company, small town: Kellogg Co., Battle Creek, Michigan

This post is part of our Big Company, Small Town series, featuring large companies and the small towns in which they are headquartered.

There are probably very few people growing up in North America that have not had Kellogg's (NYSE: K) cereal at some time. I know people that have breakfast cereal for lunch or diner as well. It is the number one U.S. breakfast cereal maker, ahead of General Mills (NYSE: GIS). Among its well-known brands are Frosted Flakes and Rice Krispies.

The company, founded by Keith (W.K.) Kellogg and brother, Dr. John Harvey Kellogg, began with only 44 employees in 1906. Today it employs more than 30,000 people, manufactures in 18 countries, and sells products in more than 180 countries.

Kellogg is a big company in a small town but it is not alone. Battle Creek, Michigan, known as the "Cereal City," is the world headquarters of Kellogg Company and also the home of Post Cereals, which was part of General Foods Corporation and is now part of Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT). When Kellogg started, there were 42 other cereal companies in Battle Creek.

Continue reading Big company, small town: Kellogg Co., Battle Creek, Michigan

General Mills expected to post Q4 profit gain; ConAgra a profit decline

Food giants General Mills Inc. (NYSE: GIS) and ConAgra Foods Inc. (NYSE: CAG) are scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings this week. While cereal-maker General Mills is expected by analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial to post higher profits, frozen-foods packager ConAgra is expected to report a profit decline.

General Mills is expected to report net income of 70 cents per share, up 11.4% from the same period of last year, on revenue of $3.4 billion. The company has tended to provided positive surprises recently -- by eight cents, or 10.4%, in the previous quarter.

Minneapolis-based General Mills is the second largest cereal-maker in the U.S., after Kellogg Co. (NYSE: K). Its other brands include Gold Medal flour, Bisquick, Hamburger Helper, Pop Secret, and Yoplait. The company had revenues in the past year of $12.4 billion and net income $1.1 billion. Its long-term EPS growth forecast is only 8.7%, much less than the industry average but about the same as Kellogg's. The consensus recommendation of analysts remains to buy General Mills.

Shares reached a 52-week high of $63.91 in early June, and closed Monday at $63.40.The share price is up 11.5% since the beginning of the year. It trades at a P/E ratio of 16.60.

Continue reading General Mills expected to post Q4 profit gain; ConAgra a profit decline

General Mills ups dividend and is near a 52-week high -- is it a strong buy?

General Mills (NYSE: GIS), arch competitor of fellow cereal seller Kellogg (NYSE: K), posted some good news for shareholders on Monday. In an otherwise gloomy day that saw the Dow remain below the 12,000 level and inflationary pressures still exerting a hold over the market, General Mills proved that dividends are at least one island of safety in a sea of trouble.

The company indicated that it will now pay an annual dividend of $1.72 per share. Previously, the annual dividend was set at $1.57 per share. This is a nice example of double-digit appreciation of approximately 10%. Based on Monday's closing price, General Mills' stock now yields a hearty 2.7%.

As a long-term idea, General Mills is certainly one of the best. As I observed with Kellogg, you can put this one on perpetual dollar-cost-averaging. However, with the stock in 52-week-high territory, and with prices for commodities, especially corn, still exerting a negative effect on businesses, I'd be a bit cautious about entering just now. Is it possible one might get General Mills closer to a 3% yield? I can't predict the short-term future, but my gut says that a pullback is inevitable. Even with cool dividend increases, stocks can return to the low end of a 52-week range at any point. Just look at Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) and the recent pressure its stock has been under. And Coke is a dividend stalwart. Nevertheless, I am bullish on General Mills' future. Just watch out for commodity trends, and perhaps remain patient for better prices on the shares.

Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.

Inflation, Kellogg-style: Less product, same price

Like all processed food producers, Kellogg Company (NYSE: K) is facing rapidly climbing costs for corn, wheat and sugar, the basic building blocks for many of its products. Rather than passing those costs on to consumers in a straightforward manner by raising prices, Kellogg is taking a sneakier route: making some of its cereal boxes smaller while keeping the price the same.

Starting this month, Kellogg will shrink the size of boxes of Apple Jacks, Cocoa Krispies, Corn Pops, Froot Loops and Honey Smacks by an average of 2.4 ounces.

Of course, using this approach is in the end the same as simply raising prices. The key is price per ounce, which goes up whether you reduce quantity or increase price. So although you will pay the same price for a box of these sweet cereals, the per ounce cost of a corn syrup high in the morning will go up.

Even though reducing ounces per box amounts to a price increase, smaller boxes have a different psychological effect than adding a few pennies to the retail price. Food companies use this approach in the hope that most consumers won't notice, and research suggests that this is in fact true.

I suppose this means that most shoppers don't look at the per ounce cost when buying things like cereal. When it comes to inflation, maybe ignorance really is bliss.

Floods may yield more inflationary pressure

Talk about a tough time in the markets. Between the financial crisis and oil prices rising on an almost daily basis, with the Fed damned if it raises rates and damned if it doesn't, the floods in the Midwest are now threatening to make a trip to the supermarket much more expensive. Yes, break out the coupons and pray for sales, because, according to The Wall Street Journal [subscription], food prices are destined for one direction: higher. That's because a lot of farmland has been damaged, throwing the supply-demand dynamic into chaos.

What does this mean for investors? Look for potential pressure on the stocks of companies such as Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), Kraft (NYSE: KFT), Kellogg (NYSE: K), General Mills (NYSE: GIS), and Hershey (NYSE: HSY). I happen to own Coke, and I've heard the news reports talking about how higher corn prices will affect Coke and Pepsi because they use corn syrup as an ingredient for their sodas. It's also been pointed out by others that PepsiCo owns Frito-Lay, and since that company manufacturers salty snacks such as Doritos and Tostitos (I love them both), corn prices will also have an impact on that division.

If you're a trader, be wary. We might be in for a rough ride this summer with not only the stocks I've mentioned here, but in a general sense. Since I own Coke, I've been acutely aware of the pullback experienced in that stock as the external pressures surround it. As I write this, the stock is trading at $54.27. The shares were over $65 during their wonderful stay at the 52-week-high suite. So, yes, buyers with short-term mentalities must be wary. However, long-term investors should look upon any pullbacks as potential opportunities for some of these food-selling companies. If you don't intend to trade, then adding to a Coke or Pepsi position might make sense.

Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.

Analyst upgrades: K, OCR, KO and OXPS

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Omnicare, Coca-Cola and OptionXpress were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Oppenheimer upgraded Omnicare (NYSE: OCR) to Outperform from Perform citing their analysis that indicates the Rx market is stronger than expected in the LTC channel, which is largely overlooked by investors due to the legacy focus on beds. The firm expects solid Q2 results will increase confidence in the company's ability to achieve mid-point or better EPS guidance.
  • Deutsche upgraded Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) to Buy from Hold based on favorable currency impact, international growth, and valuation.
  • OptionXpress (NASDAQ: OXPS) was raised at Merriman to Neutral from Sell as they see little downside to risk estimates, following several rounds of cuts, and valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Analyst downgrades: Airlines, CHTP and CLWR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Airlines, Chelsea Therapeutics and Clearwire were today's noteworthy downgrades:
  • Merrill downgraded AMR Corp (NYSE:AMR), Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), Continental Airlines (NYSE:CAL), US Airways (NYSE:LCC) and UAL Corp (NASDAQ:UAUA) to Neutral from Buy citing earnings risk this year from higher energy costs.
  • Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Chelsea Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CHTP) to Perform from Outperform after their survey suggested physicians believe currently available generic treatments are adequate in neurogenic orthostatic hypotension, which could impact the company's lead drug Droxidopa.
  • Clearwire (NASDAQ:CLWR) was cut to Sell from Hold at Citigroup on valuation, as they estimate fair value at $13.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Kellogg brightens your morning with earnings and a dividend increase

Cereal maker Kellogg (NYSE: K) issued its Q1 earnings today, and while it may not have been the most exciting event on Earth, it did beat expectations, according to Briefing.com.

The strong dollar benefited the top line, as net sales increased 10% (stripping out the effect of the strong dollar yields a top-line growth rate closer to 5%). Operating profit advanced 9%. Unfortunately, not much was happening on the bottom line -- earnings per diluted share only gained a penny, coming in at $0.81 (there was a better tax situation in last year's similar quarter, however). Not much took place in the area of cash flow either -- free cash flow declined to $181 million; last year at this time, the breakfast guru reported $289 million in free cash.

Still, Kellogg's management seems pretty confident in the company's future prospects as it saw fit to bestow a 10% dividend increase on shareholders. And going back to the expectations game, earnings came in $0.05 more than expected -- that's excellent. Kellogg, like General Mills (NYSE: GIS) and Kraft (NYSE: KFT), is a great idea for long-term dollar-cost-averaging and dividend-reinvesting (love those hyphenates!). Just don't expect tech-like growth, and do expect bumps along the way, especially with commodity prices acting as they have been.

Disclosure: I own none of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Of course bond turmoil isn't affecting stocks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says balance sheets are strong, so spillover isn't an issue.

I get emails and postings almost every day from fixed-income specialists, saying that the credit markets' myriad problems simply aren't being reflected in the equity markets, and that's just plain wrong. They warn us equity players that we are dreamers and that it is just a matter of time before the terrible problems in collateralized debt, huge leverage, and now auction rate preferred notes spill over into equities and that any rally in stocks is just a fool's paradise.

There's a problem with this inevitability story though, one that eludes these critics and might continue to elude them -- it hasn't happened yet, despite a year's worth of turmoil. That's a long time for a big problem like this to be cordoned, so it is worth looking at whether the naysayers are wrong and something else is at work.

When I look around at the vast choices of assets out there for the thousands of fund managers and institutions that have to put their money somewhere -- provided it is not dedicated to a particular asset from the get-go -- I see one world in chaos and another world in order. The bond market, the credit market, is in total disarray, with every aspect of its existence save Treasuries under fire. We know now that a simple reset market for municipals is failing because, of course, the charade of the bond insurers and their chimerical protection. The CDO market stinks. This is a multibillion dollar market where no one can figure out the prices of anything and the spreads between the bid and the ask are so wide that no one can afford to own or trade them. You don't know where they are marked. You don't know what's in them. You don't know what they are really rated. They are basically worth nothing right now to anyone. Commercial paper? Hardly worth the pick-up in interest. "Cash reserves"? We have seen the "buck" supported over and over again. There has to be a moment where the buck is broken.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Of course bond turmoil isn't affecting stocks

Pricey Wheaties: Grain prices surging on emerging market demand

First oil. Then copper, then lumber, and coal. And now grain.

The solid economic growth in the world's emerging markets that's caused oil / coal and commodities prices to surge is now fully hitting the grain market.

So much so, that some food producers are calling on the U.S. government to restrict exports due to soaring prices for grains they use to make cereal and other foods. Meanwhile, some farmers are asking the U.S. Government to ease restrictions to enable farmers to plant more acres, The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday [Subscription required].

For food producers, the issue involves limiting a major operating cost. During the past year, spring wheat has risen to an astounding $17.63 per bushel, up from about $4.90 a year ago. Flour, which used to cost about $15 per 100 pounds, now sells for about $45-48 per 100 pounds. Food producers say prices are increasing so fast, they can't pass along price increases quick enough to keep up.

Continue reading Pricey Wheaties: Grain prices surging on emerging market demand

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Last updated: August 28, 2008: 11:28 AM

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