Shares in high-end grocery retailer Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) have slid around 20% since early November. The most obvious explanation for the pullback -- investors remain concerned that a weakening housing market and continued turmoil in the credit markets could result in a slowdown at Whole Foods.
However, the company is more resistant to these pressures than many investors realize. Americans have shown an increasing desire to eat healthier -- a trend that has allowed sales of organic foods to grow at three times the rate as those at conventional groceries. As the largest retailer of organic products, Whole Foods is well-positioned to benefit from this trend.
Moreover, while the company is the clear leader in the organic grocery niche, it's still a minnow compared to traditional grocery giants like Safeway and Kroger. With only around 200 stores spread across the U.S., the U.K. and Canada, Whole Foods still has plenty of untapped markets to expand into over the coming years.
Two additional factors are also weighing on the shares at the moment. The first is a general fear regarding the potential impact of increasing competition in the organic foods market. In recent years, traditional grocery chains have been adding to their selection of organic foods. At the same time, new entrants, such as Britain's Tesco, are also targeting the space more seriously. However, Whole Foods remains the undisputed leader in this market and offers the widest product selection. Furthermore, there's plenty of room for multiple competitors in this growing space.
Finally, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) continues to pursue an antitrust case against Whole Foods' merger with rival Wild Oats Market. However, the FTC's case is weak and was strongly rejected by a judge earlier this year. The courts also rejected the government's attempts to block the merger pending an appeal -- Whole Foods has now completed the deal. It's highly unlikely that an appeals court will overturn the deal and break up the merger.
If you are interested in more analysis from Paul Tracy, you can find it at StreetAuthority.com
Posts with tag grocery
Whole Foods (WFMI): Take advantage of the growing organic food market
Kroger's new milk, it's not just for strong bones anymore
Last week, Kroger (NYSE: KR), the nation's largest traditional grocery chain, launched its new milk brand to highlight its cholesterol-reducing ability. The milk, sold under the Kroger Active Lifestyle brand is considered the first national launch of cholesterol-cutting milk."There's a major trend toward health and wellness in the country," Linda Severin, Kroger's vice president for corporate brands told the USA Today. "Managing cholesterol is just a key need for many of our customers. This is a way we can help our customers be proactive with their heart health." The trend has shown lower-fat and fat-free milk sales to increase, while whole-milk sales have been on a decline, according to U.S. agriculture statistics.
The milk uses an ingredient with plant sterols, found naturally in some vegetables, fruits, nuts and other foods, and is recognized by the FDA as potentially helping reduce the risk of heart disease.
Continue reading Kroger's new milk, it's not just for strong bones anymore
How will Wal-Mart's slowing growth affect grocers?
A piece in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) looks at how Wal-Mart's (NYSE: WMT) decision to cut back on its supercenter expansion will effect the revenues and earnings of grocery stores as well as companies that supply grocery stores.
Some suggest that Wal-Mart's biggest suppliers, companies like Kellogg (NYSE: K) and General Mills (NYSE: GIS), could be hurt by the cutback in expansion. But it seems like it could just as easily swing the other way: Will people really consume less cereal because there isn't a new Wal-Mart in town? I doubt it, and suppliers could benefit from the greater pricing power that they enjoy with smaller companies as opposed to Wal-Mart, which wants to buy everything a little (and sometimes a lot) cheaper than everyone else.
I'm a little bit puzzled at how negatively analysts are seeing this news as being for the suppliers. While it's true that Wal-Mart makes up a huge portion of the business of many food companies, the sales that were going to go to Wal-Mart will now go to its competitors, who will be able to move more product without a new competitor in town. And, with few exceptions, sales to companies like Kroger will probably carry higher gross margins than sales to the world's biggest retailer.
The major grocery chains are, of course, jumping for joy at this news. Trying to compete with Wal-Mart, especially on price, is extremely difficult for every one of its competitors, and grocery stores normally lose a massive amount of market share when a new Wal-Mart supercenter moves in.
The only loser here may be the consumer, who will have to pay more for groceries.
How to beat Wal-Mart: Don't try to copy it
The best way to beat Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) is to avoid trying to copy it, and some grocery stores are finally figuring that out. After years of trying to compete with the big box on price, which is impossible, they're now trying to offer consumers what Wal-Mart can't offer: A less hectic shopping environment, better service, and a generally more pleasant experience. And they're finding out that many, many consumers are willing to pay a a little extra for that.
Grocers are finding that they can beat Wal-Mart with services like prepared foods, and consumers like that stores like Kroger (NYSE: KR) and Safeway (NYSE: SWY) are rarely out of stock on items, a common problem at Wal-Mart supercenters. Some consumers are also realizing that by following the weekly specials, they can sometimes save money by shopping at traditional grocery stores.
The moral of the story is clear: Most mom and pop stores, and even huge chains like Kroger, will never really be able to compete with Wal-Mart on price. So why bother trying? When a Wal-Mart opens up nearby, they will lose some customers. But there is an ample market for quality service and a good shopping experience, the two things that Wal-Mart really can't provide.
When looking at ways to compete, companies have to ask themselves "What can I do that my competitor can't?" After finally realizing that they won't win in a price-war with Wal-Mart, they've given up that battle. And that just might be the first step toward victory.
"Would you like that in paper or . . . paper?"
Most of you have probably heard about the local ordinance that will ban the use of petroleum-based plastic bags in the city of San Francisco. Reports state that the measure is likely to pass with the Mayor's signature. I will refrain from stating any opinion on whether I think the move is good or bad. What I want to mention about the likely change in West Coast grocery bag options is that I think this provides an opportunity for the snatching of some timely investments.
Quick! Find those companies that produce brown kraft paper roll stock and get a little chunk of them. When the bag measure passes, those companies might get a nice boost. You may wish to consider subsidiaries of (privately held) Koch Industries, International Paper (NYSE: IP), Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB) or possibly Domtar (NYSE: DTC) (Toronto:DTC). On the local level, find the companies that are manufacturing brown paper bags for the West Coast market.
It is my personal opinion that this change in bag material usage will catch on fast, most especially on the coasts. Look into the shopping bag manufacturing field with a critical eye and watch this situation closely. If it looks like this shopping bag pony is going to "break out of the gate," I have a sneaking suspicion that this will be one pony that you want to ride!
Organic grocery wars get heated: will Whole Foods fix a broken Wild Oats?
I've been in love with natural foods grocers since I was a little girl, when Fred Meyer opened a little mini-store dedicated to raw peanut butter, tofu, wheat germ and a dozen different kinds of bulk grains. The store had candy bars made out of honey and I loved it. Since then, my understanding for and appreciation of the natural grocer has grown up with the industry; from the cute little small-town co-op where I shopped in college, to the Fresh Fields (acquired, and already assimilated by, Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ:WFMI)) I fell in love with in Philadelphia during business school, to the discovery of the Portland, Oregon New Seasons chain when I moved "back home" in 2001. I noshed at every quick-service franchise that jumped on the healthy foods wagon, from spirulina-spiked smoothies to bagels loaded with sprouts and hummus.Natural and organic grocers always seemed like the nice (if a bit militant) guys, interested in supporting the local farmer, providing non-toxic food and diapers for our babies, striving to make sure our bodies were healthy and our baths were perfumed with chamomile and lavendar. And then 2005 happened.
Suddenly Wal-Mart Stores, Inc (NYSE:WMT) was in the organic grocery game. Safeway Inc. (NYSE:SWY) started its own line of "O" organic foods. Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) created a line of herbal-infused babycare products and Kellogg Company (NYSE:K) launched organic Rice Krispies and Corn Flakes. Big business had figured it out and suddenly it wasn't smelling much like chamomile and patchouli. No. It smelled more like war.
With the news yesterday that Whole Foods was set to acquire Wild Oats Markets (NYSE:OATS), the war seems ever more bitter.
Continue reading Organic grocery wars get heated: will Whole Foods fix a broken Wild Oats?
Selling a farm-fresh lifestyle in a box
I'm a libraphile (is that the word?) and I began filling my children's shelves with books years before I had even purchased my first pregnancy test. By far my favorite image in any book is the overleaf of Blueberries for Sal, a bucolic and all-blue illustration of Sal and her mother. They are canning blueberries in a 40s-era kitchen, complete with hand-cranked egg beater, polka-dot curtains, and a cast-iron wood cooking stove. Every time I gaze at that picture I believe for a second that I will go downstairs and preserve something in one of the old-fashioned Ball jars I found at a garage sale.Alas, it never quite happens that way, but just reading the book makes me feel connected to the farm-wife ideal. Much like a wander through today's grocery store aisles. As Kim Severson mentions in today's New York Times, she feels smug when she puts a bag of Cascadian Farm organic French fries in her grocery cart (she calls is "greenwashing" and the marketers call it "an authentic narrative"): "a gentle image of a field or a farm ... suggest[s] an ample harvest gathered by an honest, hard-working family." And in creating these images for us, in selling us the hard-working farm family, marketers know that just for a minute we've left our wired, fossil-fuel-guzzling lives for a hand-hewn pine kitchen table in that log house in Maine.
In short, we're being sold our ideal lifestyle in a box, bag or can.
Whole Foods, poised for better things
Whole Foods Market, Inc. (NASDAQ:WFMI) was reinstated as outperform on 11-10-06. This stock is very attractive to me based on the things I've read about it. If the analyst's assertions are true, and WFMI's stock lost value based on a simple change in management focus from business operations to maintaining share price, then what should be happening in timely fashion will be a moderated climb back up to WFMI's fair market value. Salim Haji, an excellent writer over at The Motley Fool, offers the opinion that this stock has an intrinsic value in the $50 to $60 range.
With additional consideration of the fact that WFMI is undertaking a strategic stock buy back program, if I was looking for some fun places to play with some funds, this would be one of them. It is my opinion that this stock deserves some close attention right now. I think it is headed back up. One other thing I take into consideration about this situation is the possibility that Wal-Mart is going to fall flat on its corporate face with its "organic" food roll out. If that happens, (and I think it will), then Whole Foods Market will add even a bit more sparkle to my eye!
You can learn more about organic foods at About Organics.
Wal-Mart goes organic
It's not enough for Wal-Mart to dominate grocery aisles, it has to dominate the organic grocery aisles as well. An article from CNNMoney today notes that Wal-Mart has already doubled the amount of organic products on its shelves this year and hopes to become the low-cost leader for all things fresh and healthy.
The article quotes Andrew Wolf, analyst with BB&T Capital Markets, as warning that natural food purveyors like Whole Foods, Wild Oats and Trader Joe's should be wary.
But Wal-Mart shareholders should be happy to see their company move into this high-growth, high-margin business.
Business Week covered this trend in late March with a focus on what organic farmers think of Wal-Mart's plan. (Hint: not that much).
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