Nobody ever said investing is easy. If they did, they've never done it. It's emotionally draining, intellectually challenging, and unbelievably frustrating.
Especially when markets are as volatile as they are today. It's not just the stock market. Commodities like corn, gold, and oil spike one day only to fall the next. Bond prices run up, then get knocked back. Stocks, most noticeably when reflected by the Dow Jones Industrial Average (which only has 30 issues in it), soar 300 points one day, then crash 350 the next. There are no safe havens. No sector is exempt.
Over the summer, my twelve-year-old son proclaimed that he was going to be the world's first zillionaire! I had to explain to him that if he achieved that lofty goal he would be the only one because that is more capital than exists today; unless he meant Zimbabwean dollars. I suggested that long before he owned the whole planet there might be a few objections here and there.
This got me thinking about my pal Warren, a frequent topic of conversation in business and investment circles, and how he amassed such a great fortune over the past five decades.
He is a long way from owning the world but he has started to expand his horizons to the international scene. He has bought and sold PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) for a tidy $4 billion dollar profit and he has been hedging against the dollar for the last few years with mixed results. He bought an Israeli metal fabricator and he has splashed about in Europe and Asia.
If you read Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.B) annual reports you will find the chairmans letters, where Buffett discusses both his successes and his failures. It is his failures and the fact that he does not make the right call every time that I wish to draw attention today. BloggingStocks promotes much debate, sometimes name calling, and sometimes worse. However, it is important to understand that even the best investors make mistakes.
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
Six of the eight did well and two did not, and of course one of those two was a disaster. Among the losers, I do not think anyone is fretting about UPS, which is still one of the few triple-A rated companies along with Berkshire Hathaway. It has been well reported that the slowing economy and higher fuel prices have been the major culprits affecting UPS's earnings. In the case of WaMu, it's demise has also been well reported, but at the time I recommended it WaMu had a stellar reputation of growth and high yield for over two decades. There is no hiding, it turned out to be a lousy pick and an ANTI-SAFE Haven
Washington Mutual(NYSE: WM) closed Monday at $4.21 down from $45.50; a 98% loss.
Fortunately the remaining six picks have done very, very well. If you had bought the pool, the average gain over the last two years would have been 7.14%. Adding the dividends over the two years would have raised this to 13.14%.
You may see a recommendation to "overweight" a stock or sector. An analyst is bullish on a stock or group and feels buying more than usual will be rewarded. It may or may not come true. While it's a good idea to overweight at times, it should never be done in excess, to a point where you're putting too much of your portfolio in one stock or group of stocks. That's when overweight turns into speculate.
A rational approach to building a portfolio is to have at least five different sectors, ones that aren't correlated. There are different definitions of sectors but there are usually between 10 and 15, depending on what publication or expert you use. These sectors are categorized into broad groups, such as Healthcare, Technology, Manufacturing, etc. Within each sector are many industries. Value Line defines 98 different industries, ranging from Coal to Auto Parts to Water Utility to Beverages. Healthcare, as one example of a sector, has pharmaceutical companies, hospitals, medical devices, anything associated with health. Technology has a broad spectrum as well, encompassing everything from computers to wireless communication.
One outstanding opportunity in a stock market hammered as hard as this one is that great stocks are on sale. Many of the best known, best-earning companies are trading at valuations not seen in decades. That's the good news.
The bad news is that many stocks most of us own are way down, trading at levels well below where we bought them. In order to buy anything else, we have to sell what we have for a loss. Most of us can't do that, can't stand the pain. Get over it. Sell some of your worst losers and buy some of the great names.
I can hear many of you now: But Ted, you don't understand. I bought this stock at $10 a share and now it's trading at $1. I'd lose 90% of my money. I do understand. I've done it. Several times. That biotech I was sure was going to cure (pick one): cancer, malaria, the common cold, bursitis, arthritis, dandruff, ear wax, split ends, etc. Somehow they never came through except in their need for more money. They were always so close. Management just needed a little more time and a lot more money.
Preferred stocks are much like squirrels. They don't live on the ground. They don't fly in the air. They're always somewhere in between. A preferred is like that. It's not equity in a company. It's not debt of a company. It's always somewhere in between.
That state of being, being in between, sometimes pays handsomely to investors. Other times, it leaves them totally isolated, with nothing to show for their investments. Here's how preferred stocks work, and why they're really for institutions, not individuals. Still, individuals may find them irresistible when they see some of the yields these hybrids offer.
There are clearly some banks, thrifts and other financial institutions doing better than others. That became clear in the most recent earnings releases. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) showed a profit. True, lower than last year but that was expected. What wasn't expected was better revenues and lower losses. JPMorgan & Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) had a similar story. So did Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC). Citigroup (NYSE: C) gave better than predicted numbers. Those were the good announcements.
Not doing so well is Wachovia Bank (NYSE: WB). That loss was much larger than analysts projected. The bank cut the dividend, as expected. The stock gave up more ground.
Times are tough. The stock market is up and down, not like a roller coaster, more like a ride that takes you straight up, then drops. It's exhilarating for some, frightening for most. When stocks move this fast, they present opportunities. One way to take advantage is to use an old investment idea called Constant Dollar Investing. Here's how it works.
You make a commitment to invest the same number of dollars each month. You buy one stock, or a different one, every month. Usually investors buy a fixed number of stocks, adding to each position one at a time. What this does is give an investor an overall lower cost of buying a full position in a stock. Here are the numbers.
Several years from now, maybe even 10 or more, one of your children is going to ask, "Mom and Dad, we're studying the market meltdown of 2008 in school. Why didn't you buy stocks then? We could all be rich now."
In order to avoid a stammering, defensive answer, you might want to keep a diary, one that records your feelings as well as the reality of what we're going through. Because you won't remember the details, you'll only remember the overall fear that reigned over the market, a diary will give you specific examples of why you didn't buy stocks. Here are some possible entries:
There will come a point when the stock market stops going down. Hard to believe as we muck through the mire of the mortgage mess, oil spikes, and housing hardships. But it will happen. At some point the last mortgage will be written off, oil will at least stabilize, and houses will sell again. Having said that, don't expect any sharp rebound when the recovery starts. In fact, don't expect the recovery to begin any time soon.
That's because the mess we're in doesn't have a quick fix. Changing the tax laws doesn't make a mortgage payment. The federal government didn't make the mortgages, and it can't fix the bad ones. It can help, but not much. Tax laws can help promote new purchases, but the mortgage crisis is huge, much larger than anyone could have imagined a year ago. There were more subprime loans made than initially estimated. But remember that it's not only subprime loans that are contributing. There are also regular loans that are defaulting as unemployment increases.
After seeing the interest in yesterday's Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, I decided to track the stocks on a quarterly basis to see how they hold up over time (otherwise, what would be the purpose of discussing them in the first place?).
I said that all five have shrewd, conservative management teams and have been in the right place, at the right time -- and prepared. The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. Although my original story was published yesterday, I will be using the second quarter end point for my five stocks as well.
We are heading for a crisis of confidence, confidence in the core of the U.S. economy, the capitalist way of life, starting with financial institutions and permeating every other industry from autos to homebuilders. Investors wonder if institutions as we know them will survive. Will foreign firms buy every American company? Or will they dry up and blow away? Will all the banks shut down? Stock prices suggest many investors are thinking maybe all of these will happen.
And why not? Ford Motor (NYSE: F) announced it won't introduce a new F-150 truck, the best selling truck of all time. The reason: there are acres and acres of old F-150s sitting on dealer lots that no one wants. GeneralMotors (NYSE: GM) is shutting truck plants longer than usual since very few of its big moneymakers are moving off lots. Homebuilders are showing huge losses and all of them say there is no light at the end of this dark tunnel. Bank news gets worse each day, with headlines screaming that we aren't near to knowing how bad this mortgage and credit crisis really is.
There is no shelter in this storm. Everywhere investors look, they see more dark clouds. Most of them believe that it gets darkest just before it get pitch black. Is the American dream gone, turned into an economic nightmare, the likes of which we haven't seen since the Depression?
Hardly. During the depression, over 30% of the workforce wasn't working. Prices were constantly going lower as fewer and fewer goods were sold. All the banks were shut for a "Bank Holiday" for three days shortly after Roosevelt was elected. People were roaming the country, looking for a job, anything to keep food on the table for their families. If the American dream were going to die, it would have done so in the late 30's and early 40's. But it didn't.
Last week I wrote about what might happen if gas continues its seemingly inevitable march upward, maybe reaching $10 a gallon. There will be changes in our lifestyles, major changes. Some companies will benefit greatly, others will simply go away, unable to evolve with the new reality. Here are more industries that will be affected.
The airlines, at least the ones left, will fly smaller planes, more fuel efficient. They'll be full, every one, every time. They may not take off unless they are. Some cancelled if they're not booked up 12 hours in advance. Expect more hassles at the airport, more charges and fees for whatever airlines can imagine. (How about charging by the pound? Passengers get on a scale, then pay at the counter based on their weight.) Seat space will get even smaller.
Things are different now. Gas is more expensive, way more expensive. You used to fill a car for $20 (way back in the '60's it was $5). Now it easily costs $80 and is going higher. What does this one thing suggest will happen, not only in the U.S. but globally? The ramifications are huge. Some companies will benefit. Others will be crunched under the wheels of evolution as the inevitable occurs.
First, let's go to extremes. Say gas costs $10 a gallon. It's already close to $5 here in California. Give it a few more weeks, especially around the 4th of July. It'll break $5 and keep going. Some people have already started to adapt to the new reality. They're buying cars that get better gas mileage, dumping SUVs or big cars that slurp gas like it's a buck a gallon. So the first group of companies to benefit will be the ones making the most fuel efficient cars. That started happening about a year ago as Toyota couldn't make enough Priuses to keep up with demand. Now GM and Ford are trying to move as fast as possible to get out electric cars and/or hybrids. Do they have enough capital to make the transition?
Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started. Merrill, Lynch (NYSE: MER), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) are on the watch list at Standard & Poor's, the ratings agency that can make raising money very expensive for companies that get downgraded. Of the three, Lehman appears the most shaky with many expecting it to report a loss for the first time since it went public. Word is that the firm is trying to raise $3 billion to $4 billion to keep its capital base healthy. It's out there competing with many banks and insurance companies working on the same thing. Merrill Lynch already has its money in the bank but may need more.
The real problem all these firms have, along with all financial institution money raisers, is that they are loaded with securities they can't sell. They're called mortgage-back securities or Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO's) or SIV's (Structured Investment Vehicles) or some other acronym. They all mean the same thing: no buyers anywhere at any price. It reminds me of the high inflationary days of the 70's when selling a 30-year bond was impossible. The joke was: What's the difference between a long term bond and VD? You can get rid of VD.
Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.
Over the summer, my twelve-year-old son proclaimed that he was going to be the world's first zillionaire! I had to explain to him that if he achieved that lofty goal he would be the only one because that is more capital than exists today; unless he meant Zimbabwean dollars. I suggested that long before he owned the whole planet there might be a few objections here and there.
The stock market was down yesterday and it is down again today. Bearish sentiment is roaming through Wall Street right now, so I thought I would look back on another occasion when the market was going through similar turmoil and I wrote about the following eight stocks, which I thought would be "safe havens" in such a storm.
Ted Allrich is the founder of 
After seeing the interest in yesterday's 
Ted Allrich is the founder of 
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