Holiday 2007 retail sales: boom or bust?

Although Black Friday is still about a month away, retail industry pundits are beginning to worry about the forecast possibility of a slow holiday shopping season. Such a scenario would cause jitters at national retailers like Target (NYSE: TGT) and Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). Will energy prices (like vehicle gas) and continued messes in home spending (and mortgage industry crises) make for a slow business season that's about to get under way?

That's the large question, and it's a doozy considering the damage homebuyers and lenders have faced this year that have called into question many homeowners' pocketbooks. If those folks curb spending to a large degree, the mess left in January will be noticeable to the market as well as business leaders across the nation. When consumers twitch their thumbs over holiday purchases (even small twitches), fortunes are made or lost in an instant. In other words, let's not let Black Friday turn into an above-average Friday.

Two of the larger retailers in the nation -- Target and Best Buy (NYSE: BBY) -- will be closely watched this holiday shopping season, just like the barometer-setting Wal-Mart. Consider this quote by George Rosenbaum, head of consumer research company Leo J. Shapiro and Associates: "I would say at this moment the outlook for Christmas does not look like it's going to be a better Christmas than last year, and it could be weaker."

Yikes -- does that spell doom for the November and December retail shopping season, or will consumers surprise many of us and spend away? If signs point to a week holiday shopping season, look for retailers to roll out the red carpet -- however that can be defined -- to get customer feet in those doors.